Why 2026 marks a shift toward intent-based regulation and collaborative governance.
The Thredd team
As financial services enter a new phase of transformation, compliance is moving into a more strategic role. Kai Kahembe, Legal Counsel at Thredd, shares her view on how regulation, digital assets and organisational culture will evolve for Vixio’s Compliance Crystal Ball 2026.
Financial services is entering an era where harm prevention becomes a priority. Today, fraud is escalating faster than traditional event-based systems can respond. According to UK Finance, fraud losses reached £1.17 billion in 2023, with authorised push payment scams rising sharply due to AI-enabled impersonation attacks. Many of these scams take effect before money has even left a user’s account.
This sets the direction for 2026. Regulatory focus will move from detecting bad outcomes to preventing them. Kai predicts a stronger emphasis on understanding intent, monitoring behavioural signals and building models that act before a transaction becomes irreversible.
Regulators are already moving in this direction. The European Commission has prioritised real-time fraud prevention under PSD3, while the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has rolled out guidelines for explainable AI and secure use of automated decisioning. In the UK, the FCA is consulting on requirements for model transparency and data provenance across AI systems. These early steps point to a future where governance evolves at the same pace as the technology it oversees.
In 2026, compliance will solidify its reputation for delivering operational advantage. Firms will continue to weave regulatory change into strategic planning. In turn, we will see smoother implementation, reduced cost, and greater resilience. Ultimately, the organisations that thrive, will be those that invest not only in technology, but in the culture that guides them and enables them to succeed.
2026 will also see digital assets continue their shift from curiosity to core financial infrastructure. Tokenisation markets grew to an estimated US$5 billion in value in 2024, and institutions expect it to reach US$30 billion by 2030* as adoption accelerates across fixed income, fund management and cross-border settlement.
Momentum is clear. MAS, the Bank of England, Banque de France and global market participants are now testing tokenised settlements at scale. In the US, stablecoin legislation has accelerated institutional activity. Across Europe, MiCA has created the first comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets.
Kai expects that in 2026, the question will no longer be whether digital assets belong in regulated finance, but how they can deliver more value. Custody, capital and market integrity rules will begin aligning with those of traditional finance. As tokenised assets move across borders in real time, the efficiency gains will speak for themselves.
While technology and regulation are evolving, the foundation of the next phase of compliance is human. More than ever, trust will be the currency that determines whether organisations succeed in adapting to change. Trust is built through clarity, openness and consistent behaviour across teams. It is created by people who feel safe to ask questions early and encouraged to challenge assumptions.
Compliance teams are already shifting from reactive oversight to strategic partnership. In global surveys, more than 75 percent* of financial institutions now view compliance as a source of operational advantage, not a blocker. Kai expects this trend to accelerate in 2026, with compliance becoming embedded into strategic planning rather than responding after the fact.
This requires a culture that values curiosity, shared knowledge and collaboration. Risk discussions need to be normalised rather than escalated only when problems arise. When teams across product, engineering, legal and operations build understanding together, they create resilience that technology alone cannot achieve.
By 2026, firms that thrive will be those who weave regulatory change into their planning cycles, invest in explainable and transparent AI, and build cultures grounded in trust. The result will be smoother implementation, lower cost and greater confidence in decision-making.
Kai’s prediction is clear. Compliance is no longer a back-office function. It is becoming a forward-looking partner in innovation. It supports growth, protects customers and strengthens strategic execution. Organisations that embrace this shift will be better positioned for a financial landscape defined by speed, automation and global connectivity. You can access the full report here.
Thredd, as a next gen issuer processor, remain poised to support clients through 2026 and beyond. To get in touch with our BD team click here.
Sources:
UK Finance – Fraud Report 2024
European Commission – PSD3 and PSR Proposals (2023–2024)
Monetary Authority of Singapore – Responsible AI Guidelines (2024–2025)
Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) – AI and Digital Regulation Updates (2023–2025)
Boston Consulting Group (BCG) – “Relevance of On-Chain Asset Tokenization” (2024)
Thomson Reuters – Cost of Compliance Report 2024
MAS, Bank of England, Banque de France – Public Statements and Pilot Announcements (2023–2025)
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